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FallingModerate confidence

Verified Oct 5, 2026· source: EIA Gulf Coast

Panama fuel price forecast

For the bulletin of October 30, 2026 we estimate gasoline 91 will fall to B/.1.285 per liter. Correlation model with US Gulf Coast prices (EIA), moderate confidence.

How it is calculatedToday's prices

Gasoline 95

$1.364/L

-5.7 ¢vs. current price

today $1.421 per liter

Gasoline 91

$1.285/L

+0.6 ¢vs. current price

today $1.279 per liter

Diesel

$1.500/L

-1.6 ¢vs. current price

today $1.516 per liter

Expected price per liter, Zone 1, for the bulletin of October 30, 2026. Computed on October 23, 2026.

Fill up now or wait?

Better to wait for the change

The model projects gasoline 91 at B/.1.285/L on October 30, 2026, B/.0.006 less per liter than today. On a 50-liter tank you save B/.0.30. Worth waiting.

The official price is confirmed by the SNE in its bulletin. This forecast is an independent estimate.

How we calculate the forecast

An ordinary least squares (OLS) model calibrated on confirmed SNE bulletins and weekly EIA prices.

Mean error

±3.1¢/L

calibration Oct 12 2026

Calibrated periods

34

SNE bulletins

R² gasoline

0.913

R² diesel 0.976

  1. 01

    Reference data: EIA

    Every Monday the Energy Information Administration publishes retail prices for regular, premium and diesel on the US Gulf Coast. Panama imports refined fuel from that region, so they are the best available predictor of the SNE price.

  2. 02

    Empirical correlation

    We compare EIA prices with each confirmed SNE bulletin and fit the coefficients by regression. Gasoline uses a bivariate model (regular plus the premium spread); diesel a univariate one.

  3. 03

    Applied formula

    We apply the coefficients to the latest EIA week and convert from dollars per gallon to balboas per liter, rounding to three decimals like the SNE.

    Formula

    • 95 (B/./L) = (1.2683 × EIA regular + 4.7250 × (EIA premium - EIA regular) - 3.8663) ÷ 3.785
    • 91 (B/./L) = 95 × 0.9421
    • Diesel (B/./L) = (1.0191 × EIA diesel - 0.2532) ÷ 3.785
  4. 04

    Limitations

    • The SNE uses wholesale (spot) prices that are not public; we use EIA retail with an empirical correction.
    • The SNE's exact reference window is not published; we estimate about ten business days before the bulletin.
    • Policy changes (margins, taxes) and local events cannot be predicted with an international price model.
    • The model improves with every confirmed bulletin.

EIA reference data

Weekly retail prices on the US Gulf Coast, dollars per gallon.

  • Oct 5 2026Reference
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.911
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.772
    Diesel ($/gal)
    5.819
  • Sep 28 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.924
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.772
    Diesel ($/gal)
    5.955
  • Sep 21 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.972
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.826
    Diesel ($/gal)
    6.177
  • Sep 14 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.852
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.703
    Diesel ($/gal)
    6.027
  • Sep 7 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.685
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.539
    Diesel ($/gal)
    5.754
  • Aug 31 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.618
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.486
    Diesel ($/gal)
    5.360
  • Aug 24 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.638
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.493
    Diesel ($/gal)
    5.481
  • Aug 17 2026
    Regular ($/gal)
    3.622
    Premium ($/gal)
    4.496
    Diesel ($/gal)
    5.237

Verified Oct 5, 2026· source: EIA

The first row is the week used for this forecast.

Hits and misses

Each forecast is compared with the price the SNE confirmed afterwards. An error under 2 cents counts as a hit.

  • May 1, 2026
    Forecast 95
    1.250
    Actual 95
    1.271
    Error 95
    0.021Miss
    Forecast diesel
    1.378
    Actual diesel
    1.273
    Error diesel
    0.105Miss
  • April 17, 2026
    Forecast 95
    1.250
    Actual 95
    1.231
    Error 95
    0.019Hit
    Forecast diesel
    1.378
    Actual diesel
    1.368
    Error diesel
    0.010Hit
Balboas per liter. The history grows with every bulletin.

Data sources

Forecast questions

What will gasoline cost in Panama in the next bulletin?
Our model projects gasoline 91 at B/.1.285/L, gasoline 95 at B/.1.364/L and diesel at B/.1.500/L for the bulletin of October 30, 2026. The model's historical mean error is about 2 cents per liter. The official figure is published by the SNE at energia.gob.pa.
When is the best time to fill up?
If the forecast says stable or falling, you can wait. If it says rising, fill up before the Friday of the change, when the new price takes effect at 6:00 a.m. The current forecast for October 30, 2026 is: falling, better to wait.
How far ahead is the forecast published?
The forecast is recomputed whenever the EIA publishes a new week (Mondays) and whenever the SNE confirms a bulletin. It is usually available several days before the official announcement.
How accurate was the last forecast?
For the bulletin of May 1, 2026 we forecast B/.1.250/L for gasoline 95 and the actual price was B/.1.271/L, an error of B/.0.021. For diesel the forecast was B/.1.378 and the actual B/.1.273, an error of B/.0.105. The hits and misses table on this page shows the full history.
What is WTI and how does it affect Panama gas prices?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the US crude oil benchmark. Panama imports refined fuel mainly from the Gulf Coast, so when WTI rises, refined product costs rise and the SNE passes the increase to the maximum price. The link is strong but not instant: the SNE uses prices from about ten business days before each bulletin.
Why does the model say stable if WTI went up?
The model uses EIA refined gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast, not crude directly. Sometimes crude rises while refining margins fall (or the reverse), which softens the pass-through. The stable threshold is also two cents per liter: smaller moves count as no significant change.
Why EIA prices instead of RBOB or ULSD directly?
EIA retail prices are public, free and published every Monday. RBOB and ULSD spot prices from Platts or OPIS, which the SNE uses for its exact formula, require paid subscriptions. The R² between EIA retail and the SNE price is close to 0.96, solid enough for a useful forecast.
How accurate is the model?
The model is calibrated on all confirmed SNE bulletins and their EIA weeks. The mean error is around 2 cents per liter for gasoline and 1 cent for diesel; the exact figures of the current calibration are shown in the model section. Accuracy improves with every bulletin.
Can the price change without any movement in the US?
Yes. The SNE can adjust approved margins for distributors and stations, the government can change the cost structure, or local events such as a regional shortage can occur. Those factors cannot be predicted with an international price correlation model.
How do I get the forecast?
Come back to this page before each SNE bulletin. The editorial notes explain with every change what moved WTI and the EIA benchmark.

Today's prices

Gasoline 95, gasoline 91 and diesel with the change versus the previous period, zone table and tank calculator.

See today's pricesEditorial notes