Fuel Price Forecast for Panama
STABLE
Stabilized markets, minimal change expected
Fill up now or wait?
No rush — price will stay virtually the same
The model projects regular gasoline at B/.1.185/L for May 15 — virtually unchanged from current B/.1.191/L. Fill up whenever convenient.
Based on EIA Gulf Coast 2026-04-27. Official price confirmed by SNE every Thursday.
Current (SNE)
B/. 1.271
/liter
🔮 Forecast
B/. 1.253
▼ B/.-0.018
1.253 B/./L = 4.743 B/./gallon
Current (SNE)
B/. 1.191
/liter
🔮 Forecast
B/. 1.185
▼ B/.-0.006
1.185 B/./L = 4.486 B/./gallon
Current (SNE)
B/. 1.273
/liter
🔮 Forecast
B/. 1.294
▲ +B/.0.021
1.294 B/./L = 4.898 B/./gallon
Market Context
Why are prices rising?
+44.7%
US Gasoline
in 6 weeks
+43.7%
US Diesel
in 6 weeks
+11.1%
Panama Gas
Mar → Apr 2026
US Gulf Coast prices surged 44.7% for gasoline and 43.7% for diesel in just 6 weeks. Panama absorbed part of that impact with a 11.1% increase from the March to April period.
Current factors
Outlook
The May 15 forecast points to gasoline nearly unchanged (−1–2¢) and diesel slightly higher (+2¢). Accuracy will improve once May 11 EIA data is published.
EIA Gulf Coast (week 2026-04-27): Gasoline $3.663/gal · Diesel $5.012/gal
How we calculate the forecast
1. Reference data — EIA (USA)
Every Monday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes retail gasoline and diesel prices on the US Gulf Coast. Panama imports refined fuel from this region, making these prices the primary predictor of the SNE price.
2. Empirical correlation
We compare EIA prices with confirmed SNE prices and derive correlation factors. With only 2 confirmed periods, the model has a ±5% margin of error. Accuracy improves with each new data point.
3. Applied formula
We apply the factors to the most recent EIA price and convert from $/gallon to B/./liter. The result is our central prediction with a confidence range.
Formula:
95 oct (B/./L) = EIA gasoline ($/gal) × 1.3299 ÷ 3.785
91 oct = 95 oct × 0.945521 (historical ratio)
Diesel (B/./L) = EIA diesel ($/gal) × 1.0733 ÷ 3.785
4. Honest limitations
- ⚠SNE uses SPOT (wholesale) prices, not retail. We apply an empirical correction.
- ⚠SNE's exact reference period is not officially published — we estimate ~10 business days prior.
- ⚠Policy changes (margin adjustments, tax modifications) are not predictable.
- ⚠With only 2 confirmed periods, the model will improve over time.
EIA Reference Data
US Gulf Coast retail prices · Source: eia.gov
| Week | Gasoline ($/gal) | Diesel ($/gal) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27forecast ref. | $3.663 | $5.012 |
| 2026-04-20 | $3.664 | $5.069 |
| 2026-04-13 | $3.783 | $5.310 |
| 2026-04-06 | $3.797 | $5.415 |
| 2026-03-30 | $3.590 | $5.105 |
| 2026-03-23 | $3.604 | $5.134 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.412 | $4.835 |
| 2026-03-09 | $3.109 | $4.627 |
SNE uses the average of ~10 business days before Thursday's revision. This table shows weekly EIA prices as a proxy.
Accuracy History
We compare our predictions with confirmed SNE prices
| SNE Revision | Forecast | Actual SNE | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | B/.1.250 | B/.1.271 | ±0.021 |
| 2026-04-17 | B/.1.250 | B/.1.231 | ±0.019 |
Data Sources
Official maximum retail prices (weekly images)
Weekly Gulf Coast retail prices
RBOB and ULSD futures — leading indicator (reference)